The Long Tail of User Attention

Segmenting it for fun, profit and momentum

Chris Anderson popularized the long tail of content by observing that over a large diverse body of content, while a small percentage of content is the most “popular”, there are opportunities in leveraging and aggregating access to the niche content that makes up the tail.

Lately I’ve been seeing a lot of vertically oriented content and application sites and it struck me that they share a similar phenomenon of usage patterns that mimics the long tail graph. Since these sites have a narrower content focus I think it might be more useful to people building these businesses to change the perspective of the curve and to examine it from the viewpoint of the user and their frequency of use instead of the frequency of use of the content.

If we take that perspective from what I am seeing in these kinds of businesses, the curve for many sites would look like this:

I’d bet that this pattern applies not only to niche sites but also to broader content sites such as MySpace and YouTube. Let’s take a look at the different user groups:

• Zealots are people passionate about the content and functionality on the site who connect and use it regularly several times a week or even multiple times per day.

• Casual Users are people that visit the site once or at most a few times a month. They don’t have a regular need or desire to be connected to the content.

• Unengaged Users likely found the site through a search engine or other marketing vehicle; probably visited only a few times and intermittently. They have occasional use for the content or services on the site and tend to forget to visit except when the need arises.

A good strategy for gaining momentum, growing traffic and revenue on the site would be to understand the characteristics of these user groups. By using online surveys, focus groups and other profiling techniques you can establish basic demographic and psychographic information and may be able to develop rich profiles of the sub segments within each group.

Using this information you can explore the sub segments and develop an operating/marketing plan that expands you business.

For Zealots I would consider:

1. What percentage of the population does this group represent? This gives you an estimate of the available market.
2. What percentage of that market would the site be able to attract?  How big can this group really get?
3. How can you maximize the revenue from this group and at what rate?  Are there services you can charge for?
4. Since this group is likely to be the most profitable, how and where can you target acquiring more of this type of user?

For Casual Users:

1. Are there hidden zealots in this group that can be converted to higher frequency users?
2. What changes or additions to the product would it take to convert this group to zealots?
3. For the part of this group that are not hidden zealots:
   1. Are there effective ways to engage them more frequently?
   2. What is the most effective way to monetize them and what is the life time value?
   3. Can you really cost effectively acquire more casual users?

For Unengaged Users

1. Where and what do they typically look for and why do they engage in the type of content or service you provide?
2. What marketing tactics can you employ to be in front of them at the time they are interested in what you have to offer?
   1. Do you have content or service that lends itself to Search Engine Optimization?
   2. Can you make enough money on a single visit to cost effectively use Search Engine       Marketing or other performance based advertising to drive them to the site?
   3. Are there sites with whom you can syndicate, partner or create a network with to drive traffic to your site?

When creating the operating and marketing plan for growth, it’s good to keep a few things in mind:

1. Not all users are created equal.
2. Some are more active and profitable than others.
3. There needs to be a large enough available market so that you can attract enough users with the right mix to make a profitable business.
4. Tailor the product features and the marketing so it performs effectively for each group.

Once you have analyzed and thought through the user data you should have a clear picture of your target audiences; what you want to build for them, how you will make money from them and ultimately if that group will allow you to build a profitable business. 

The ultimate goal is to change the shape of the curve by broadening the appeal to ever increasing groups of users by continually adding features and content. Start by understanding what your current long tail of users looks like and expanding your market from there.